Ebola Epidemic Underestimated in West Africa

The number of Ebola cases registered in the West African countries has surpassed 7,400, and the death toll of the epidemic is at about 3,355, according to the records published by the World Health Organization and the United Nations. Health specialists cited by Reuters agree, though, that these numbers can be hugely underestimated.

The difficulty of keeping track of the dangerous disease and the numerous gaps in the knowledge about it makes it difficult to correctly evaluate its spread, health experts say. Lots of patients are not counted due to their lack of access to medical attention, and sometimes hidden in scared families turned away by medical clinics already overwhelmed by the number of patients. Other times the remote location of some settlements, or even the resistance of their inhabitants makes it impossible to evaluate their situation. According to a W.H.O. report in August, the number of patients appearing whenever a new medical facility is opened in West Africa suggests a large number of currently “invisible” cases.

According to a recent evaluation published last week by the US Center for Disease Control, the number of confirmed Ebola cases could have surpasses 8,000 by the end of last month. They have recognized, though, that the actual number of cases might be almost three times as big, due mostly to under-reporting of the new cases. The World Health Organization has admitted its figures are under-reported, despite making the best effort to clean up the available data.

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A careful re-evaluation of the data can make a huge difference. Last week the WHO has reported that there are 31 health care workers who have fallen victims to the dangerous disease. After a careful recount of the information, this number has suddenly grown to 81, and this in Sierra Leone alone (one of the countries affected by the disease). The same country has reported a far too low number of deceased patients, only about 24% of the total number of infected citizens, while the numbers are very different in other countries: Liberia reports a 54% death toll, while Guinea 61%.